Module D – Release Timeline

When Did the Models Arrive — and How Large Was the Gap?

Release timeline 2023–2026. Above the axis: US models. Below: Chinese models. Project models in bold.

USA (Closed)

China (Open Weight)

Project Model

Gap as of July 2026: Kimi K3 (China, July 16) matches the capability level of American closed models from late 2025 according to independent tests — an estimated gap of 6–8 months behind the current US frontier (Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol). By comparison: at the start of 2024, the gap was still over 12 months.

Release dates: public announcements by providers. Dates marked * are approximated to ±1 month. Selected models only. Timeline after January 2026 is stretched (≈ ×3) for better readability of the July cluster.